BETTER OFF

Do you really know how 's the financial market doing ?
Give a glance to the above charts. It 's worth it !
Do you remember what I said and which was my prediction about the index 2 months and a half ago ?
No ?!
You 'd better go to see it !
This is the right link : http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/07/nz50-index-forecast.html

..... and this was the "right" chart-graph.
To be honest I was sure at about a new minimum on October , but not with this force.
We are facing with something real new for everyone is trading on the market in these days, even Mr Warren Buffet. There 've been a few crisis in the last 30 years :
1975-78 : Petrol Crisis
1987 : Crash on Wall Street Market
1990 - 1993 : Bank crisis and doom on Japanese Market
1998 : Asian Market Crash
2000-2002 : New Economy Crash

but nothing like this one, like what we are living today.
We need to look back longer, I reckon.

Stay tuned to keep up with the news.
See you soon.
Bye

Fun in the middle of the Storm

The International Crisis

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/187307/october-06-2008/jim-cramer

Something that I suggest to see , not just for fun.
Meanwhile they 're laughing , they 're saying something interesting too.

Bye Bye

Portfolio Updated (30 Sep, 2008)

Summary :
1) I've been get out in some position with a lost only on Air New Zealand because the others were cover with a stop loss;
2) I didn't open a short position on the NZ50 Index because of the American Bailout. I was worried about the volatility;
3) My commodities portfolio consist of only GOLD (it's the only commodities I bought in the last 5 years and it's likely to be the only one also for the future);
4) Cash for now is my significant position;
5) Currencies remain the only "equity" position open;

This is a easy portfolio that everyone can build and follow.
This is my personal view with my New Zealand Money.

See you soon, as soon as I can.
Financial Markets keep me very busy in these days and I have not a lot of spare time to write in this blog.
Sorry about that.
I'll do my best.

Bye

Portfolio Updated (Sep 8, 2008)

News in brief :
this is the speculative positions open and close updated at 10th of September on my personal Equity NZ Portfolio.
As you can see, I've been stopped with a small relative loss on the last 2 speculative operations vs Us Dollar, open probably to early. I was looking for a rebound due by an incredible oversold on the most famous Trading Momentum Indicators, as Rsi or Williams. This shows you how important is the stop loss, overall when you work with leverage (in my overseas account usually is 1:20).
I closed the long Us Dollar position exactly where I thought. This is not mentioned in this imagine, because I did it this morning, because the price reached 79.84 as maximum against 79.90 I predicted a couple of weeks ago.
I also moved the Stop Loss on Fletcher to the Enter Price, so I won't lose anything in case the share suddenly should moved down.
Good trading to everyone.
Bye.

Personal Positions NZ Market

My personal position on NZ Market.
I ll try to keep it updated in this blog (at least fortnightly).

Bye bye.

The Purple Prince-trader

Short USD vs NZD and AUD

I want to show you 2 quick operations I opened this morning :
1) short USD-NZD
2) short USD-AUD

technical signal as you can see above (they are both oversold in their short term momentum)

See you soon
Bye

My Account

Just to show you how I'm operating in these days with my new account.

Bye Bye.
See you soon.
The Purple Princetrader

Currency Lookout (17th Aug 08)

I think the last week at the Reserve Bank's Office in Wellington has been very HOT !
On the 13th of August Bollard started calling all the Banks and asking them to BUY - BUY - BUY the National Currency. Probably he called also in China and Japan to find an HELP.
Otherwise ............. Guys, close all the doors and put outside the notice :
SOLD OUT !!!



In America in the meantime the Executive Order was :
"Keep buying US Dollar, whatever the cost !"
Also there the armchairs are very hot.

It's time to buy Us Dollar ?
It's time to buy NZ Dollar ?

Not yet, my friends !
Before, Let them play their game.

Like a wise old man we stay at the river's border waiting for the right moment to throw the fish-hook.

See you later.
Bye

Drawn on NZ Herald Article

A person really competent, on my opinion, is Mr Brian Gaynor who usually writes good and technical article on NZ Herald business section. In his last, I read about his consideration about the 3 most important company on the New Zealand Financial Market.
2 of them I've already said my idea, and it's well known for who's been following me since I opened this blog (you can have a look a this previous post : http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/telstra-vs-telecom-nz.html
http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/telecom-update.html
http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/07/telecom-what-to-do.html)
Anyway, I wanted to update my view on Telstra and overall on Fletcher, whom I 've never talked about it. You could find something interesting, I think.
In brief......
Telstra will become really good only if it can break area 6.00 Dollar and with strong Volume.
Fletcher, on the contrary, may be good right now !
I think this share can over-performance in the next weeks, even if only for short time.
If Monday it opens positive, I m gonna buy it and I will put a stop loss just some ticks under the Thursday low.

Have a good trade !
Bye

The Purple Prince

NZ50 Index - Update 16th August 2008

Nothing is changed !!
The NZ50 Index is following the prediction. Everything under control.
So..... keep going dear fellows.

Bye
The Purple Prince

NZ50 Index - Update

Everything under control !
The NZ50 Index is moving following my forecasts.
I'm still positive for short term.
The Long Term view is always negative.
On my opinion this is only a rebound, nothing more.
How long can it last ?
Probably till the end of summer in New York.
As I said last month there are some interesting share to buy in this moment, but you must be very clever to find out them.
One for example could be ...... Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).
It could be good also for the currency.
Don't you think so ?

Bye

Update NZ50 Index

nothing change at the moment .....
Next 2 days will be very important.
Tonight they are going to play an important match in Wall Street.
Stay tuned !
See you on tomorrow.

Bye

Despite Moody's

Despite their outlook, I m still positive in this share.
Risk-Reward absolutely fantastic.
This is a Warrent Buffet's modus operandi.
Nothing 's gonna change my mind, unless the Oil Future price.


Bye
The Purple Prince

NZ50 Index - Forecast

Let's try !
From today I start a new Technical Analysis that I'm going to improve day by day.
Let's start with this :

It's not really a good risk-reward, but with the Future Index we can do it !
Stay tuned !
Bye

AIR New Zealand

It's time to build a long position in this stock.
I bought this morning my first tranche.
I'm going to buy an other two tranches, following the Sperandeo's Theory.

Stop loss is the previous bottom (of course) and the Oil Price.
Following these two, there will be no problems.


Bye traders.
See you soon.

Everything UNDER CONTROL

What I forecasted and what it's happened :

1) I opened a SHORT (SELL) position on the NZ Index and I gain 8.6% in just one month ;
(see the previous update at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/nz50-index-update.html )
I'm ready to open again the same position in a few days, I think.

2) I've been with LONG Position on Euro since at the middle of March;
(see the previous article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/eur-nzd.html )

3) I've been with LONG Position on GB Pound since of the beginnin of April ;
( see this article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/short-nzd.html )

4) I opened a LONG Position on Yen last week following the analysis done in this Blog on June 9th when there's been the breaking point of area 80.54 with stop loss at 82.90 :
( see previous article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/ready-to-hit.html )

and more .....

CALM BEFORE THE STORM

Yesterday I bought the Sunday Star Times (I don't want to advertise anyone, trust me) and do you know what I found really interesting ?
One small article at the D12 page in the Business Insert, just at the end in the Who's Who section.
Have you read it ?
No ?
You should dear reader.
Why ?
Because you'll find out what are some financial banks like.
It's incredible !
If you don't have the newspaper anymore, then try to check it out this :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aKq4yHbl1Ejk&pid=20601087

CALM BEFORE THE STORM

Bye

A good advice

Dear readers,
I'd like to leave you this interesting advice, because I reckon it's really good.
The book they are talking about it's on of my favourites.
It's on my special shelf in the office with others eight.
Now and then I remember to read some pages, overall when I feel confuse.
This time I'm very grateful to Mr. Jason Zweig for his good advice and I suggest you to keep it in your mind every time you want to buy a stock.



Absolutely GREAT.
Buy this book and you will be surely repaid.
Trust me ladies and gentlemen.

Bye

ANZ Update

It's not time to buy this stock, yet !
Let it plunge another 25% and there we can think to start our new long position, as long as the financial world index give us new signals of inversion.
Otherwise .......

Stay tuned !
Bye

Telecom - What to do ?

As foreseen in my previous article on 30th June the BIG Telecom has rebounded once it reached is double bottom in area 3.30.
See link at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/telecom-update.html

What should we expect now ?
I'm not sure, but the big movement on the volume (if it's real, true) in the last days it really worries me, and it let me think we are in the middle of just a pullback.
I'm going to buy this stock only if it comes back over 4,10 dollars or it drops to the next minimum expected to area 2.35 .
For now I don't care about it.


Let them play their game !!
We will be ready when it is convenient.

Bye

As expected

Do you really think that only the Big One Banks in USA are affected to the credit crunch ?
Do you know that there's no money anymore in the financial system ?
Do you know that all the big institutions meet all the doors close when they go to ask for money ?
Have you never seen the liabilities of your country Banks ?
Do you know they survive only for the "charity" of the International financial system ?
What do you think could happen if one days someone tells them .... "We are sorry friend, but I can not lend you money anymore !" ?


Keep up with next articles !
Stay tuned.
Bye

UK & USA Banks problems

Have you seen this ?



It's also happened in UK. Do you remember ?
Northern Rock. Does it sound familiar ?

It could happen here dear friends.
How safe are your money ?

Check your bank !!

It's only an advice, nothing more !
Anyway, in the future don't say that I didn't tell you.

bye

A glance to the Past

My old Economic's teacher was used to say ..... Dear Guys, remember always one thing:
"The Past is really important. Don't do the mistake thinking the opposite !"
Before him, with the same opinion there have been famous thinkers as Archimede (2200 ad), G. Vico (1668-1774), N. Machiavelli (1469-1527).
As you can see above, we are still under media both on price and on days.
Let's be prepared mate !

Bye

It's not over !!!

Above you find my personal view of the market with the Elliot Waves.
We should be into the Wave C of the principal movement started at Jul 2007 (for some markets) and Oct 2007 (for others).
I suggest you to go to this link and listen what he said in his last Bloomberg interview:
http://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrIG4cHtP.HQ.asf
I do agree with him.
As a friend of mine is saying in these weeks ....... trying to find a bottom during these moments, is a mug's game.
See you soon.

A quick look at USA Market

Remember this dear friends.
This is, overall, a financial crisis or better ..... a Bank slump.
As you can easily see above, some indices haven't broken their min of March yet. In fact some sector are quite good, like the Nasdaq Computer's or the Health's.
Looking around you can discover good opportunity.
One advice I can give you it's to check the VideoGame sector. Inside of it you could find some shares that will be a surprise for next year.
Check it out !!

Take your money in Switzerland

You shoud have done it last year, but if you don't ......
you are still in time !
If you see the exchange NZD/CHF under 75 book your ticket to Zurich, take the fastest airplane and fly to there with your overnight bag full of NZDollar.
There they will be safe and when you go back to bring them at home, you'll find out a good surprise.
14% gain currency + 4% yield gain

Pay attention mate !

High Yield Bond Market

In my opinion (and not only mine of course) something is changing in the Bond Market.
For example this.
The High Yield has alreay spiked (as you can see on the figure1) and moreover if you look at it very well you can see there is also a 10ys cycle in the Default Rate. The 2 previous minimun have been on '88 and '98. All this let me think that we are very closed to a reversal.
In confirmation of this I have attached another figure where you can see the EMBI+spread. It seems it's turning around as well.
The Inflation Drift (Drive-force) it 's not the only (or the principal) cause of that.
We need to look at the economic cycle in different angles.
Interest rate - Recession - Default - Credit Crisis - etc.
So, to close this thread, in my personal portfolio there aren't this kind of Bond and there won't be in the next years.

Good trade !

It's raining CATS & DOGS

ATTENTION !!! Southern Cross

If there is problem there, what's going on here ?
Watch Out for the risk default.
Mind the Insurance !

Stay tuned.
Bye

NZ50 Index - Update

Where is it going ?
Unfortunately it's not all its fault !
Anyway ......
I don't trust too much at this figure above.
Some clouds are obscuring the sun, and I don't know why
but I reckon next long term target it is
area 2600-2550
where there are some interesting setup (70% today).
I want to say that it's really likely we are going to retest the 1998 top, as long as the shaddyy slump keeps going in its way.
Otherwise, if the pace is less dramatic it will stop close to 2750 area where there is a 61,8% retracement (30% today).
Stay tuned.
Bye

TELECOM update

Absolutely no good !
I think it keeps going down.
To where ?
Let's go to see what Elliot teach us.

The Elliot Wave Analysis in this case tell me :
a) area 3.5 - 2.5 has 90% chance to be reached;
b) area 3.30 is 75% Wave (top 1- bottom 3) and also 2,382 projection Wave 1 (Wave C);
c) area 3.30 is 1/3 of the absolute Top (9.90 - on 2000);

so .... I think next easy target it could be ... 3.30 for now,
but there's a great chance to see this share plunge to 2.35 area before start remaining flat for a while and bottom out.
That has just joined us ! Coming next ....(couple of weeks)
Will Telecom weather the storm ?
Will Telecom get off to a flying start when it reach that area ?
I think we won't miss the boat !

Keep in touch.
Bye