N.Z. Technical Analysis Abroad: 07/2008

2008/07/29

NZ50 Index - Forecast

Let's try !
From today I start a new Technical Analysis that I'm going to improve day by day.
Let's start with this :

It's not really a good risk-reward, but with the Future Index we can do it !
Stay tuned !
Bye

It's time to build a long position in this stock.
I bought this morning my first tranche.
I'm going to buy an other two tranches, following the Sperandeo's Theory.

Stop loss is the previous bottom (of course) and the Oil Price.
Following these two, there will be no problems.

Bye traders.
See you soon.

2008/07/27

Everything UNDER CONTROL

What I forecasted and what it's happened :

1) I opened a SHORT (SELL) position on the NZ Index and I gain 8.6% in just one month ;
(see the previous update at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/nz50-index-update.html )
I'm ready to open again the same position in a few days, I think.

2) I've been with LONG Position on Euro since at the middle of March;
(see the previous article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/eur-nzd.html )

3) I've been with LONG Position on GB Pound since of the beginnin of April ;
( see this article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/short-nzd.html )

4) I opened a LONG Position on Yen last week following the analysis done in this Blog on June 9th when there's been the breaking point of area 80.54 with stop loss at 82.90 :
( see previous article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/ready-to-hit.html )

and more .....

CALM BEFORE THE STORM

Yesterday I bought the Sunday Star Times (I don't want to advertise anyone, trust me) and do you know what I found really interesting ?
One small article at the D12 page in the Business Insert, just at the end in the Who's Who section.
Have you read it ?
No ?
You should dear reader.
Why ?
Because you'll find out what are some financial banks like.
It's incredible !
If you don't have the newspaper anymore, then try to check it out this :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aKq4yHbl1Ejk&pid=20601087

CALM BEFORE THE STORM

Bye

A good advice

Dear readers,
I'd like to leave you this interesting advice, because I reckon it's really good.
The book they are talking about it's on of my favourites.
It's on my special shelf in the office with others eight.
Now and then I remember to read some pages, overall when I feel confuse.
This time I'm very grateful to Mr. Jason Zweig for his good advice and I suggest you to keep it in your mind every time you want to buy a stock.

Absolutely GREAT.
Buy this book and you will be surely repaid.
Trust me ladies and gentlemen.

Bye

ANZ Update

It's not time to buy this stock, yet !
Let it plunge another 25% and there we can think to start our new long position, as long as the financial world index give us new signals of inversion.
Otherwise .......

Stay tuned !
Bye

Telecom - What to do ?

As foreseen in my previous article on 30th June the BIG Telecom has rebounded once it reached is double bottom in area 3.30.
See link at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/telecom-update.html

What should we expect now ?
I'm not sure, but the big movement on the volume (if it's real, true) in the last days it really worries me, and it let me think we are in the middle of just a pullback.
I'm going to buy this stock only if it comes back over 4,10 dollars or it drops to the next minimum expected to area 2.35 .
For now I don't care about it.

Let them play their game !!
We will be ready when it is convenient.

Bye

As expected

Do you really think that only the Big One Banks in USA are affected to the credit crunch ?
Do you know that there's no money anymore in the financial system ?
Do you know that all the big institutions meet all the doors close when they go to ask for money ?
Have you never seen the liabilities of your country Banks ?
Do you know they survive only for the "charity" of the International financial system ?
What do you think could happen if one days someone tells them .... "We are sorry friend, but I can not lend you money anymore !" ?

Keep up with next articles !
Stay tuned.
Bye

2008/07/21

UK & USA Banks problems

Have you seen this ?

It's also happened in UK. Do you remember ?
Northern Rock. Does it sound familiar ?

It could happen here dear friends.
How safe are your money ?

Check your bank !!

It's only an advice, nothing more !
Anyway, in the future don't say that I didn't tell you.

bye

A glance to the Past

My old Economic's teacher was used to say ..... Dear Guys, remember always one thing:
"The Past is really important. Don't do the mistake thinking the opposite !"
Before him, with the same opinion there have been famous thinkers as Archimede (2200 ad), G. Vico (1668-1774), N. Machiavelli (1469-1527).
As you can see above, we are still under media both on price and on days.
Let's be prepared mate !

Bye

It's not over !!!

Above you find my personal view of the market with the Elliot Waves.
We should be into the Wave C of the principal movement started at Jul 2007 (for some markets) and Oct 2007 (for others).
I suggest you to go to this link and listen what he said in his last Bloomberg interview:
http://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrIG4cHtP.HQ.asf
I do agree with him.
As a friend of mine is saying in these weeks ....... trying to find a bottom during these moments, is a mug's game.
See you soon.

2008/07/15

A quick look at USA Market

Remember this dear friends.
This is, overall, a financial crisis or better ..... a Bank slump.
As you can easily see above, some indices haven't broken their min of March yet. In fact some sector are quite good, like the Nasdaq Computer's or the Health's.
Looking around you can discover good opportunity.
One advice I can give you it's to check the VideoGame sector. Inside of it you could find some shares that will be a surprise for next year.
Check it out !!

2008/07/06

Take your money in Switzerland

You shoud have done it last year, but if you don't ......
you are still in time !
If you see the exchange NZD/CHF under 75 book your ticket to Zurich, take the fastest airplane and fly to there with your overnight bag full of NZDollar.
There they will be safe and when you go back to bring them at home, you'll find out a good surprise.
14% gain currency + 4% yield gain

Pay attention mate !

2008/07/05

High Yield Bond Market

In my opinion (and not only mine of course) something is changing in the Bond Market.
For example this.
The High Yield has alreay spiked (as you can see on the figure1) and moreover if you look at it very well you can see there is also a 10ys cycle in the Default Rate. The 2 previous minimun have been on '88 and '98. All this let me think that we are very closed to a reversal.
In confirmation of this I have attached another figure where you can see the EMBI+spread. It seems it's turning around as well.
The Inflation Drift (Drive-force) it 's not the only (or the principal) cause of that.
We need to look at the economic cycle in different angles.
Interest rate - Recession - Default - Credit Crisis - etc.
So, to close this thread, in my personal portfolio there aren't this kind of Bond and there won't be in the next years.

Good trade !