A glance to the Past

My old Economic's teacher was used to say ..... Dear Guys, remember always one thing:
"The Past is really important. Don't do the mistake thinking the opposite !"
Before him, with the same opinion there have been famous thinkers as Archimede (2200 ad), G. Vico (1668-1774), N. Machiavelli (1469-1527).
As you can see above, we are still under media both on price and on days.
Let's be prepared mate !

Bye

It's not over !!!

Above you find my personal view of the market with the Elliot Waves.
We should be into the Wave C of the principal movement started at Jul 2007 (for some markets) and Oct 2007 (for others).
I suggest you to go to this link and listen what he said in his last Bloomberg interview:
http://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrIG4cHtP.HQ.asf
I do agree with him.
As a friend of mine is saying in these weeks ....... trying to find a bottom during these moments, is a mug's game.
See you soon.

A quick look at USA Market

Remember this dear friends.
This is, overall, a financial crisis or better ..... a Bank slump.
As you can easily see above, some indices haven't broken their min of March yet. In fact some sector are quite good, like the Nasdaq Computer's or the Health's.
Looking around you can discover good opportunity.
One advice I can give you it's to check the VideoGame sector. Inside of it you could find some shares that will be a surprise for next year.
Check it out !!

Take your money in Switzerland

You shoud have done it last year, but if you don't ......
you are still in time !
If you see the exchange NZD/CHF under 75 book your ticket to Zurich, take the fastest airplane and fly to there with your overnight bag full of NZDollar.
There they will be safe and when you go back to bring them at home, you'll find out a good surprise.
14% gain currency + 4% yield gain

Pay attention mate !

High Yield Bond Market

In my opinion (and not only mine of course) something is changing in the Bond Market.
For example this.
The High Yield has alreay spiked (as you can see on the figure1) and moreover if you look at it very well you can see there is also a 10ys cycle in the Default Rate. The 2 previous minimun have been on '88 and '98. All this let me think that we are very closed to a reversal.
In confirmation of this I have attached another figure where you can see the EMBI+spread. It seems it's turning around as well.
The Inflation Drift (Drive-force) it 's not the only (or the principal) cause of that.
We need to look at the economic cycle in different angles.
Interest rate - Recession - Default - Credit Crisis - etc.
So, to close this thread, in my personal portfolio there aren't this kind of Bond and there won't be in the next years.

Good trade !

It's raining CATS & DOGS

ATTENTION !!! Southern Cross

If there is problem there, what's going on here ?
Watch Out for the risk default.
Mind the Insurance !

Stay tuned.
Bye