A quick look at USA Market

Remember this dear friends.
This is, overall, a financial crisis or better ..... a Bank slump.
As you can easily see above, some indices haven't broken their min of March yet. In fact some sector are quite good, like the Nasdaq Computer's or the Health's.
Looking around you can discover good opportunity.
One advice I can give you it's to check the VideoGame sector. Inside of it you could find some shares that will be a surprise for next year.
Check it out !!

Take your money in Switzerland

You shoud have done it last year, but if you don't ......
you are still in time !
If you see the exchange NZD/CHF under 75 book your ticket to Zurich, take the fastest airplane and fly to there with your overnight bag full of NZDollar.
There they will be safe and when you go back to bring them at home, you'll find out a good surprise.
14% gain currency + 4% yield gain

Pay attention mate !

High Yield Bond Market

In my opinion (and not only mine of course) something is changing in the Bond Market.
For example this.
The High Yield has alreay spiked (as you can see on the figure1) and moreover if you look at it very well you can see there is also a 10ys cycle in the Default Rate. The 2 previous minimun have been on '88 and '98. All this let me think that we are very closed to a reversal.
In confirmation of this I have attached another figure where you can see the EMBI+spread. It seems it's turning around as well.
The Inflation Drift (Drive-force) it 's not the only (or the principal) cause of that.
We need to look at the economic cycle in different angles.
Interest rate - Recession - Default - Credit Crisis - etc.
So, to close this thread, in my personal portfolio there aren't this kind of Bond and there won't be in the next years.

Good trade !

It's raining CATS & DOGS

ATTENTION !!! Southern Cross

If there is problem there, what's going on here ?
Watch Out for the risk default.
Mind the Insurance !

Stay tuned.
Bye

NZ50 Index - Update

Where is it going ?
Unfortunately it's not all its fault !
Anyway ......
I don't trust too much at this figure above.
Some clouds are obscuring the sun, and I don't know why
but I reckon next long term target it is
area 2600-2550
where there are some interesting setup (70% today).
I want to say that it's really likely we are going to retest the 1998 top, as long as the shaddyy slump keeps going in its way.
Otherwise, if the pace is less dramatic it will stop close to 2750 area where there is a 61,8% retracement (30% today).
Stay tuned.
Bye

TELECOM update

Absolutely no good !
I think it keeps going down.
To where ?
Let's go to see what Elliot teach us.

The Elliot Wave Analysis in this case tell me :
a) area 3.5 - 2.5 has 90% chance to be reached;
b) area 3.30 is 75% Wave (top 1- bottom 3) and also 2,382 projection Wave 1 (Wave C);
c) area 3.30 is 1/3 of the absolute Top (9.90 - on 2000);

so .... I think next easy target it could be ... 3.30 for now,
but there's a great chance to see this share plunge to 2.35 area before start remaining flat for a while and bottom out.
That has just joined us ! Coming next ....(couple of weeks)
Will Telecom weather the storm ?
Will Telecom get off to a flying start when it reach that area ?
I think we won't miss the boat !

Keep in touch.
Bye