Portfolio Update

Dear reader,

let's go to check my Portfolio.

As you could see looking at the new attachments, I brought home some new gain on my workability. At that time I had a view regarding a likely uptrend and my stop profit levels were put following my trading system, forasmuch as I couldn't hit those on the nail. Only the M.T. ( Majestic Traders ) can guess the perfect bottom and top in an uptrend (vice versa for downtrend of course). I was a little bit surprise on the last extension of the bull market started on the middle of July. So I decided to stay at the window before entering with some short position. I'm investing, and the risk-reward is my landmark on this time, overall because I don't have as much time as I 'd like.

Before showing you the new Portfolio some notes to clarify my activity :

1) I have been stopped at the beginnig of April in the Gold position cause my stop loss set off ;

2) ANZ the last to be closed (end of July) automatically too ;

3) I did not open any position on Bond Market, cause the only one that make sense was on the Corporate Bond but it was too risky for me and I'm still a little bit worried regarding Interest Rates ;

4) Totally surprise on the Big movement of Nz Dollar, particularly against the Euro (23%) ;

5) Today my first Short has been placed, using Ultrashort ETF ;

The reversal so far is just a small amount, because there are some points on this market that are not really clear to me. I need some more confirmation. Not on Price but on Time. August is not a Set Up for my trading system. I need to deepen this.

Ok, that's it !!

Update soon.

Bye

Error Correction

Sorry, I've just realized that in previous imagine there was a mistake.
It was Gold the last line and not NZ Index.
Here the correction.
Thank you.

Bye

Let's try !!!

Welcome back bull market !

Maybe not for long time, but welcome back.

I think we touched a bottom quite important in these weeks.

I know, it's not only my opinion, but I have to say that I agree with those have this idea.

Why ?

Because of fundamental view and overall technical analysis view.

You should know it.

I'm a fun of T.A. , and as you can see in this blog, I'm try to prove it.

So looking at my new portfolio check what has changed :

1) close all the previous short position against NZ Dollar because I reckon we will see some improvement in it next months ;

2) open a new long position AUD/USD because I believe in a new commodities rally and Aud (like Cad) is the right currency to ride this new wave ;

3) Long on NZ Index as part of my new Market interpretation ;

4) bought ANZ and FLETCHER BUILDING because leader of two sectors I am a fun of now ;

5) Again on favour of GOLD (reasonably the best option against Iper-Inflation so far) ;

It's all for today.

Sorry for my rush, but I have thousand and thousand things to do, and no spare time.

It's easily shown on these 5 points above which is my broad view of the financial markets nowadays.

I'll try to keep updated my portfolio more frequently.

Bye

Update

I have not been writing in the last 4 months because of a turn of events that kept me busy (on the jump). Anyway, they have been days with a lot of volatility and it's been quite hard and stressful to be invested on the market. So.... in the meantime, what's happened ?
Nothing really "special", I'd say. The shares and commodities market kept slumping till the end of the year and then it started to find a support, meanwhile the Bonds (just the Government one and not the Corporate) had a big bullish trend until January. Gold seems to be the only defence for most of Institutional Investors and the currency had a trading range absolutely frightening.
I reckon you know all these matters, overall when we think of our "weak NZ Dollar".

What you can find just below are some of my consideration regarding my personal portfolio and two NZ Shares I was following in these months.
Let me say just that my studies were quite "guessed" (broadly speaking). I don't wanna appear to much vain and neither to commend (glorify) myself, but as far as I am concerned I am absolutely pleased of my job even if I wasn't (and I say .... was not) right on the Interest Rate Call. But now something 's changing. So prick up yours ears my friends.

Have a look these graphs:

You can check my previous comment on the archive on the right side of this Blog.



That's all for today.
I will be back quite soon, because I have some news for you !

BETTER OFF

Do you really know how 's the financial market doing ?
Give a glance to the above charts. It 's worth it !
Do you remember what I said and which was my prediction about the index 2 months and a half ago ?
No ?!
You 'd better go to see it !
This is the right link : http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/07/nz50-index-forecast.html

..... and this was the "right" chart-graph.
To be honest I was sure at about a new minimum on October , but not with this force.
We are facing with something real new for everyone is trading on the market in these days, even Mr Warren Buffet. There 've been a few crisis in the last 30 years :
1975-78 : Petrol Crisis
1987 : Crash on Wall Street Market
1990 - 1993 : Bank crisis and doom on Japanese Market
1998 : Asian Market Crash
2000-2002 : New Economy Crash

but nothing like this one, like what we are living today.
We need to look back longer, I reckon.

Stay tuned to keep up with the news.
See you soon.
Bye

Fun in the middle of the Storm

The International Crisis

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/187307/october-06-2008/jim-cramer

Something that I suggest to see , not just for fun.
Meanwhile they 're laughing , they 're saying something interesting too.

Bye Bye

Portfolio Updated (30 Sep, 2008)

Summary :
1) I've been get out in some position with a lost only on Air New Zealand because the others were cover with a stop loss;
2) I didn't open a short position on the NZ50 Index because of the American Bailout. I was worried about the volatility;
3) My commodities portfolio consist of only GOLD (it's the only commodities I bought in the last 5 years and it's likely to be the only one also for the future);
4) Cash for now is my significant position;
5) Currencies remain the only "equity" position open;

This is a easy portfolio that everyone can build and follow.
This is my personal view with my New Zealand Money.

See you soon, as soon as I can.
Financial Markets keep me very busy in these days and I have not a lot of spare time to write in this blog.
Sorry about that.
I'll do my best.

Bye

Portfolio Updated (Sep 8, 2008)

News in brief :
this is the speculative positions open and close updated at 10th of September on my personal Equity NZ Portfolio.
As you can see, I've been stopped with a small relative loss on the last 2 speculative operations vs Us Dollar, open probably to early. I was looking for a rebound due by an incredible oversold on the most famous Trading Momentum Indicators, as Rsi or Williams. This shows you how important is the stop loss, overall when you work with leverage (in my overseas account usually is 1:20).
I closed the long Us Dollar position exactly where I thought. This is not mentioned in this imagine, because I did it this morning, because the price reached 79.84 as maximum against 79.90 I predicted a couple of weeks ago.
I also moved the Stop Loss on Fletcher to the Enter Price, so I won't lose anything in case the share suddenly should moved down.
Good trading to everyone.
Bye.

Personal Positions NZ Market

My personal position on NZ Market.
I ll try to keep it updated in this blog (at least fortnightly).

Bye bye.

The Purple Prince-trader

Short USD vs NZD and AUD

I want to show you 2 quick operations I opened this morning :
1) short USD-NZD
2) short USD-AUD

technical signal as you can see above (they are both oversold in their short term momentum)

See you soon
Bye

My Account

Just to show you how I'm operating in these days with my new account.

Bye Bye.
See you soon.
The Purple Princetrader

Currency Lookout (17th Aug 08)

I think the last week at the Reserve Bank's Office in Wellington has been very HOT !
On the 13th of August Bollard started calling all the Banks and asking them to BUY - BUY - BUY the National Currency. Probably he called also in China and Japan to find an HELP.
Otherwise ............. Guys, close all the doors and put outside the notice :
SOLD OUT !!!



In America in the meantime the Executive Order was :
"Keep buying US Dollar, whatever the cost !"
Also there the armchairs are very hot.

It's time to buy Us Dollar ?
It's time to buy NZ Dollar ?

Not yet, my friends !
Before, Let them play their game.

Like a wise old man we stay at the river's border waiting for the right moment to throw the fish-hook.

See you later.
Bye

Drawn on NZ Herald Article

A person really competent, on my opinion, is Mr Brian Gaynor who usually writes good and technical article on NZ Herald business section. In his last, I read about his consideration about the 3 most important company on the New Zealand Financial Market.
2 of them I've already said my idea, and it's well known for who's been following me since I opened this blog (you can have a look a this previous post : http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/telstra-vs-telecom-nz.html
http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/telecom-update.html
http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/07/telecom-what-to-do.html)
Anyway, I wanted to update my view on Telstra and overall on Fletcher, whom I 've never talked about it. You could find something interesting, I think.
In brief......
Telstra will become really good only if it can break area 6.00 Dollar and with strong Volume.
Fletcher, on the contrary, may be good right now !
I think this share can over-performance in the next weeks, even if only for short time.
If Monday it opens positive, I m gonna buy it and I will put a stop loss just some ticks under the Thursday low.

Have a good trade !
Bye

The Purple Prince

NZ50 Index - Update 16th August 2008

Nothing is changed !!
The NZ50 Index is following the prediction. Everything under control.
So..... keep going dear fellows.

Bye
The Purple Prince

NZ50 Index - Update

Everything under control !
The NZ50 Index is moving following my forecasts.
I'm still positive for short term.
The Long Term view is always negative.
On my opinion this is only a rebound, nothing more.
How long can it last ?
Probably till the end of summer in New York.
As I said last month there are some interesting share to buy in this moment, but you must be very clever to find out them.
One for example could be ...... Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).
It could be good also for the currency.
Don't you think so ?

Bye

Update NZ50 Index

nothing change at the moment .....
Next 2 days will be very important.
Tonight they are going to play an important match in Wall Street.
Stay tuned !
See you on tomorrow.

Bye

Despite Moody's

Despite their outlook, I m still positive in this share.
Risk-Reward absolutely fantastic.
This is a Warrent Buffet's modus operandi.
Nothing 's gonna change my mind, unless the Oil Future price.


Bye
The Purple Prince

NZ50 Index - Forecast

Let's try !
From today I start a new Technical Analysis that I'm going to improve day by day.
Let's start with this :

It's not really a good risk-reward, but with the Future Index we can do it !
Stay tuned !
Bye

AIR New Zealand

It's time to build a long position in this stock.
I bought this morning my first tranche.
I'm going to buy an other two tranches, following the Sperandeo's Theory.

Stop loss is the previous bottom (of course) and the Oil Price.
Following these two, there will be no problems.


Bye traders.
See you soon.

Everything UNDER CONTROL

What I forecasted and what it's happened :

1) I opened a SHORT (SELL) position on the NZ Index and I gain 8.6% in just one month ;
(see the previous update at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/nz50-index-update.html )
I'm ready to open again the same position in a few days, I think.

2) I've been with LONG Position on Euro since at the middle of March;
(see the previous article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/eur-nzd.html )

3) I've been with LONG Position on GB Pound since of the beginnin of April ;
( see this article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/05/short-nzd.html )

4) I opened a LONG Position on Yen last week following the analysis done in this Blog on June 9th when there's been the breaking point of area 80.54 with stop loss at 82.90 :
( see previous article at http://nztechnicalanalysisabroad.blogspot.com/2008/06/ready-to-hit.html )

and more .....